Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Credit Crisis Part 2

Summary
TL Dumpling(Tsoi Chan) and myself(Mark Lester/Phoenix Grayman) decided to revisit the Credit crisis and visualize the ideas in a different manner. In the first project we visualized the crisis as a finite state machine. The type of design allows us to tell a story about how it got start and how it transitioned to each state until the kaboom. This time around we decided to show the crisis as a petri net. We wanted to show the crisis an equation where once all the "variables" were accounted for a recession was bound to take place.

Motivation and Interaction
Denotation
The Credit Crisis is defined in the project in several ways. The most obvious is the visual layout of the section of the economy we modeled that played the biggest role in the melt down. The models were used in the previous project because the scripting for this one was much more intensive. In project 3 we just highlighted parts that were effected in each transition of the state machine. This time around the project will take the user through an equation step by step. We decided to make the equation move forward on the ticks of time. There are 30 ticks in all.
  1. Federal Reserve gives credit to banks 1/3
  2. 2/3
  3. 3/3
  4. Bank buys mortgages with credit 1/4 (Prime)
  5. 2/4 (Sub Prime)
  6. 3/4(Sub Prime)
  7. 4/4 (Sub Prime)
  8. Box AAA of Collateral Debt Obligations receives first set of payments (least risky)
  9. Box BBB gets filled
  10. Box Unrated gets filled
  11. The investor receive payments from the CDOs 1/3
  12. 2/3
  13. 3/3
  14. Investors pay Bank for the CDOs 1/3
  15. 2/3
  16. 3/3
  17. Sub Primes Default and stops paying 1/3
  18. 2/3
  19. 3/3
  20. Prime Mortgage owners walks away from his mortgage
  21. Box Unrated no longer making money
  22. Box BBB no longer making money
  23. Box AAA no longer making money
  24. Investors no longer make money cause CDOs are worthless 1/3
  25. 2/3
  26. 3/3
  27. Investors won't buy anymore CDOs from Bank 1/3
  28. 2/3
  29. 3/3
  30. Bank no longer making money and in major debt goes Bankrupt
Connotation
There are various connotations involved in the project as well. For starters we used the same theme from last project. This was done intentionally to not only promote the connotations from last time but also instill the user with a sense of familiarity with our projects. We also showed the the money as a flow of arrows. This helps convey the point of where the money goes is where the attention goes. So we wanted the arrows to be a way to follow where the money was going throughout the equation. We went with red to mean money is gone and green to mean flowing money.
Video

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Project 3 Credit Crisis Part 1

Summary
In this project Tsoi Chan(TL Dumpling) and myself(Phoenix Grayman) decided to create a finite state machine that represents how the Credit Crisis came to be. The credit crisis is very complex so we got the majority of our information from here. Mr. Jarvis has very good visual on describing the different steps of the crisis. Our project takes these steps and puts them into a finite state machine modeled in Second Life.
Motivation and Interaction
Denotation
The denotation of this data is represented in a number of ways. First we have the main billboard. The main billboard explains each state and also numbers the states so that the user know which state they are in. Each state is like a piece of the puzzle and explains the reasoning of the puzzle piece and how it relates to the whole. So as the state machines moves forward the big pictures get easier and easier to understand. To facilitate the billboards purpose of conveying this denotation, we use highlighting to bring notice to the parts of the economy that are being affected in the billboard's current state. This helps the user better understand the connections between all the states. The states of our model are as follows
  1. Looking for a Good Investment: Investor look for a profitable investments
  2. Federal Reserve: Investor go to Federal Reserve but the investments there aren't very profitable
  3. How Banks Make Money: How banks make money and set up for why investors went to the bankers
  4. Bankers Go Crazy with Leverage: How investors and bankers are connected
  5. Why This Works: Explanation of why CDO aren't really a bad idea
  6. They Get Greedy: How they made it a bad idea because of greediness
  7. What Went Wrong:Explanation of why the change was a bad idea
  8. Downward Spiral: The effects of the bad idea
  9. Credit Crisis: The overall final effect the one we see in the news
Connotation
The connotation of the data is represented in the themes of the models our group created. The first theme we used is that we modeled our objects with symbols that represent the models real world equivalent. For example, for investors we modeled big buildings which tap into our archetype of the lifestyle of investors. Another theme we use to represent the connotation of the data, is by capturing the theme that Jonathan Jarvis used in his visuals. His theme helps convey the story better because the color scheme reminds the user of money and thats what the credit crisis is all about.
Video